APAM - Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$36.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$44.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$34.00
CONSENSUS:
$36.33
UPSIDE:
9.66%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
66.2%
13.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (66.2%) vs. cost of equity (13.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.36x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 66.2% vs. 13.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.18x on $6.18 tangible book, implying $95.16 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$36.33
Analyst Range
$31.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
162%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly