Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. logo APAM - Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $36.33
UPSIDE: 9.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.2% below fair value
Current Price $33.13
Bear Case $66.61 101.1% upside ($66.61 - $33.13) / $33.13 = 101.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.66x TBV
Fair Value $95.16 187.2% upside ($95.16 - $33.13) / $33.13 = 187.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.18x TBV
Bull Case $123.71 273.4% upside ($123.71 - $33.13) / $33.13 = 273.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.70x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

66.2%
13.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (66.2%) vs. cost of equity (13.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 66.2% vs. 13.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.18x on $6.18 tangible book, implying $95.16 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $36.33
Analyst Range $31.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 162%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $36.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly