Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. logo APAM - Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.3% below fair value
Current Price $41.57
Bear Case $66.61 60.2% upside ($66.61 - $41.57) / $41.57 = 60.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.70x TBV
Fair Value $95.16 128.9% upside ($95.16 - $41.57) / $41.57 = 128.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.23x TBV
Bull Case $123.71 197.6% upside ($123.71 - $41.57) / $41.57 = 197.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.76x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

66.2%
13.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (66.2%) vs. cost of equity (13.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 6.73x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 66.2% vs. 13.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.23x on $6.18 tangible book, implying $95.16 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $40.00
Analyst Range $36.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 138%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 138% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly