APAM - Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$40.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$44.00
LOW:
$36.00
MEDIAN:
$40.00
CONSENSUS:
$40.00
DOWNSIDE:
3.78%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
66.2%
13.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (66.2%) vs. cost of equity (13.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.73x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 66.2% vs. 13.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.23x on $6.18 tangible book, implying $95.16 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$40.00
Analyst Range
$36.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
138%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 138% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly