Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited logo AOSL - Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 33.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.0% above fair value
Current Price $37.56
Bear Case $21.07 43.9% downside ($21.07 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -43.9% $1.09 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $26.64 29.1% downside ($26.64 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -29.1% $1.09 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $32.21 14.2% downside ($32.21 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -14.2% $1.09 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.09$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.09)

Implied Market Multiple 34.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.64 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing