Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited logo AOSL - Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 3.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 65.3% above fair value
Current Price $41.72
Bear Case $19.96 52.2% downside ($19.96 - $41.72) / $41.72 = -52.2% $1.09 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $25.24 39.5% downside ($25.24 - $41.72) / $41.72 = -39.5% $1.09 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $30.52 26.8% downside ($30.52 - $41.72) / $41.72 = -26.8% $1.09 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.09$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.09)

Implied Market Multiple 38.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.24 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing