Artivion, Inc. logo AORT - Artivion, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $40.50
CONSENSUS: $40.50
UPSIDE: 62.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 76.5% above fair value
Current Price $24.94
Bear Case $11.30 54.7% downside ($11.30 - $24.94) / $24.94 = -54.7% $0.42 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $14.13 43.3% downside ($14.13 - $24.94) / $24.94 = -43.3% $0.42 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $16.94 32.1% downside ($16.94 - $24.94) / $24.94 = -32.1% $0.42 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 59.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.13 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 101%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples