Artivion, Inc. logo AORT - Artivion, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $38.67
UPSIDE: 67.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 517.0% above fair value
Current Price $23.08
Bear Case $2.99 87.0% downside ($2.99 - $23.08) / $23.08 = -87.0% $0.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $3.74 83.8% downside ($3.74 - $23.08) / $23.08 = -83.8% $0.21 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $4.49 80.6% downside ($4.49 - $23.08) / $23.08 = -80.6% $0.21 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 109.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.21, the base-case value is $3.74 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $38.67
Analyst Range $31.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 90%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $38.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples