Artivion, Inc. logo AORT - Artivion, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $42.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $42.50
CONSENSUS: $42.50
UPSIDE: 66.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 583.6% above fair value
Current Price $25.57
Bear Case $2.99 88.3% downside ($2.99 - $25.57) / $25.57 = -88.3% $0.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $3.74 85.4% downside ($3.74 - $25.57) / $25.57 = -85.4% $0.21 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $4.49 82.4% downside ($4.49 - $25.57) / $25.57 = -82.4% $0.21 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 121.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.21, the base-case value is $3.74 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $42.50
Analyst Range $40.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 91%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $42.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples