Artivion, Inc. logo AORT - Artivion, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $53.00
UPSIDE: 135.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.0% above fair value
Current Price $22.46
Bear Case $13.30 40.8% downside ($13.30 - $22.46) / $22.46 = -40.8% $0.42 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $16.63 25.9% downside ($16.63 - $22.46) / $22.46 = -25.9% $0.42 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $19.94 11.2% downside ($19.94 - $22.46) / $22.46 = -11.2% $0.42 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 53.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.63 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 101%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples