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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 132.2% above fair value
Current Price $374.30
Bear Case $118.59 68.3% downside ($118.59 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -68.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $161.22 56.9% downside ($161.22 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -56.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $204.08 45.5% downside ($204.08 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -45.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 55.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.5% vs our 10.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $161.22 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 47% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions