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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 247.2% above fair value
Current Price $374.30
Bear Case $76.23 79.6% downside ($76.23 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -79.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $107.81 71.2% downside ($107.81 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -71.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $141.19 62.3% downside ($141.19 - $374.30) / $374.30 = -62.3% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 98.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.3% vs our 12.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $107.81 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions