ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo ANIP - ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $91.00
LOW: $91.00
MEDIAN: $91.00
CONSENSUS: $91.00
UPSIDE: 17.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.8% below fair value
Current Price $77.72
Bear Case $113.17 45.6% upside ($113.17 - $77.72) / $77.72 = 45.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $203.34 161.6% upside ($203.34 - $77.72) / $77.72 = 161.6% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $314.64 304.8% upside ($314.64 - $77.72) / $77.72 = 304.8% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 14.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 4.9% vs our 19.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $203.34 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 48% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $91.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 154% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions