Abercrombie & Fitch Co. logo ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 30
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $117.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $153.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $118.00
CONSENSUS: $117.57
UPSIDE: 4.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.5% above fair value
Current Price $112.36
Bear Case $93.01 17.2% downside ($93.01 - $112.36) / $112.36 = -17.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $102.61 8.7% downside ($102.61 - $112.36) / $112.36 = -8.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $113.46 1.0% upside ($113.46 - $112.36) / $112.36 = 1.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 15.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.4% vs our 4.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $102.61 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (56 analysts) $117.57
Analyst Range $87.00 – $153.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions