The Andersons, Inc. logo ANDE - The Andersons, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $96.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $96.67
UPSIDE: 36.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 153.5% above fair value
Current Price $70.97
Bear Case $22.40 68.4% downside ($22.40 - $70.97) / $70.97 = -68.4% $2.80 × 8x P/E
Fair Value $28.00 60.5% downside ($28.00 - $70.97) / $70.97 = -60.5% $2.80 × 10x P/E
Bull Case $33.60 52.7% downside ($33.60 - $70.97) / $70.97 = -52.7% $2.80 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

10.0x
2.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.80, the base-case value is $28.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.92.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $96.67
Analyst Range $90.00 – $110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 71%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $13.92 (below our primary estimate by 50%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.67 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples