American Tower Corporation logo AMT - American Tower Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 37
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $215.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $255.00
LOW: $185.00
MEDIAN: $207.50
CONSENSUS: $215.40
UPSIDE: 17.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.6% below fair value
Current Price $183.85
Bear Case $227.72 23.9% upside ($227.72 - $183.85) / $183.85 = 23.9% $9.85 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $276.86 50.6% upside ($276.86 - $183.85) / $183.85 = 50.6% $9.85 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $326.00 77.3% upside ($326.00 - $183.85) / $183.85 = 77.3% $9.85 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
9.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.85) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $215.40 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $276.86 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $226.22 (27% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $215.40 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify