AMT - American Tower Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$209.89
DETAILS
HIGH:
$240.00
LOW:
$188.00
MEDIAN:
$208.00
CONSENSUS:
$209.89
UPSIDE:
19.10%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
27.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.85) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Plain-Language Summary
At $9.85 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $266.00 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $226.22.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$209.89
Analyst Range
$188.00 – $240.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $209.89 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify