American Tower Corporation logo AMT - American Tower Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 39
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $214.44 DETAILS
HIGH: $254.00
LOW: $188.00
MEDIAN: $208.00
CONSENSUS: $214.44
UPSIDE: 27.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.0% below fair value
Current Price $168.59
Bear Case $227.44 34.9% upside ($227.44 - $168.59) / $168.59 = 34.9% $9.85 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $276.53 64.0% upside ($276.53 - $168.59) / $168.59 = 64.0% $9.85 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $325.60 93.1% upside ($325.60 - $168.59) / $168.59 = 93.1% $9.85 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
9.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.85) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $214.44 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $276.53 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $226.22 (27% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $214.44 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify