American Tower Corporation logo AMT - American Tower Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 40
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $209.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $240.00
LOW: $188.00
MEDIAN: $208.00
CONSENSUS: $209.89
UPSIDE: 19.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.7% below fair value
Current Price $176.23
Bear Case $216.74 23.0% upside ($216.74 - $176.23) / $176.23 = 23.0% $9.85 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $266.00 50.9% upside ($266.00 - $176.23) / $176.23 = 50.9% $9.85 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $315.25 78.9% upside ($315.25 - $176.23) / $176.23 = 78.9% $9.85 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
9.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.85) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.9x

Plain-Language Summary

At $9.85 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $266.00 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $226.22.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (50 analysts) $209.89
Analyst Range $188.00 – $240.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $209.89 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify