Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo AMRX - Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.75
UPSIDE: 9.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 47.1% above fair value
Current Price $17.99
Bear Case $10.48 41.7% downside ($10.48 - $17.99) / $17.99 = -41.7% $0.85 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.23 32.0% downside ($12.23 - $17.99) / $17.99 = -32.0% $0.85 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $13.97 22.3% downside ($13.97 - $17.99) / $17.99 = -22.3% $0.85 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.5x
0.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.85, the base-case value is $12.23 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $19.75
Analyst Range $16.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 284%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples