Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo AMRX - Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.33
UPSIDE: 39.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.5% above fair value
Current Price $12.42
Bear Case $10.29 17.1% downside ($10.29 - $12.42) / $12.42 = -17.1% $0.71 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.00 3.3% downside ($12.00 - $12.42) / $12.42 = -3.3% $0.71 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $13.73 10.5% upside ($13.73 - $12.42) / $12.42 = 10.5% $0.71 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.5x
0.71$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.33 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.00 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 222%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.33 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples