Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. logo AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $189.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $194.00
LOW: $185.00
MEDIAN: $189.50
CONSENSUS: $189.50
UPSIDE: 8.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 70% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.0% below fair value
Current Price $175.30
Bear Case $198.68 13.3% upside ($198.68 - $175.30) / $175.30 = 13.3% FCF −30% × 8x
Fair Value $330.55 88.6% upside ($330.55 - $175.30) / $175.30 = 88.6% Current FCF × 10x
Bull Case $498.39 184.3% upside ($498.39 - $175.30) / $175.30 = 184.3% FCF +30% × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
10.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Implied Market Multiple 4.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 10x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $330.55 per share. Range: $198.68 to $498.39.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.
⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

Key Risks

  • AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
  • Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
  • Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically