Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $21.50
CONSENSUS: $23.00
UPSIDE: 24.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.1% below fair value
Current Price $18.41
Bear Case $20.78 12.9% upside ($20.78 - $18.41) / $18.41 = 12.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $25.61 39.1% upside ($25.61 - $18.41) / $18.41 = 39.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $29.79 61.8% upside ($29.79 - $18.41) / $18.41 = 61.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.61 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions