AMN - AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$27.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$26.00
MEDIAN:
$26.00
CONSENSUS:
$27.50
DOWNSIDE:
14.99%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
6.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.1%
vs our 6.4% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions