AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. logo AMN - AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $27.50
DOWNSIDE: 14.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.6% below fair value
Current Price $32.35
Bear Case $46.36 43.3% upside ($46.36 - $32.35) / $32.35 = 43.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $59.48 83.9% upside ($59.48 - $32.35) / $32.35 = 83.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $71.21 120.1% upside ($71.21 - $32.35) / $32.35 = 120.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 9.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.1% vs our 6.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions