AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. logo AMN - AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
DOWNSIDE: 16.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.5% below fair value
Current Price $32.37
Bear Case $46.26 42.9% upside ($46.26 - $32.37) / $32.37 = 42.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $59.36 83.4% upside ($59.36 - $32.37) / $32.37 = 83.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $71.06 119.5% upside ($71.06 - $32.37) / $32.37 = 119.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 9.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.1% vs our 6.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.36 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 160% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions