AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes American Homes 4 Rent's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AMH as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is American Homes 4 Rent's fair value?

Fair value for AMH is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AMH?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AMH's most recent reported fundamentals.

AMH - American Homes 4 Rent

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $34.40 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 42.7% below fair value

Current Price $32.27

Bear Case $47.41 46.9% upside ($47.41 - $32.27) / $32.27 = 46.9% $2.66 FFO × 21x

Fair Value $56.30 74.5% upside ($56.30 - $32.27) / $32.27 = 74.5% $2.66 FFO × 25x

Bull Case $65.19 102.0% upside ($65.19 - $32.27) / $32.27 = 102.0% $2.66 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

24.7x

FFO per Share

2.66$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.66) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.40 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.30 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $34.40 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify