Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. logo AMG - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $402.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $405.00
LOW: $400.00
MEDIAN: $402.50
CONSENSUS: $402.50
UPSIDE: 33.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.8% below fair value
Current Price $301.96
Bear Case $309.98 2.7% upside ($309.98 - $301.96) / $301.96 = 2.7% ROTCE 16.6% → 1.91x TBV
Fair Value $442.84 46.7% upside ($442.84 - $301.96) / $301.96 = 46.7% ROTCE 22.1% → 2.75x TBV
Bull Case $575.69 90.7% upside ($575.69 - $301.96) / $301.96 = 90.7% ROTCE 25.4% → 3.25x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

22.1%
10.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (22.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.46x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $402.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $442.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly