Amalgamated Financial Corp. logo AMAL - Amalgamated Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $48.00
UPSIDE: 3.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.7% below fair value
Current Price $46.32
Bear Case $33.38 27.9% downside ($33.38 - $46.32) / $46.32 = -27.9% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.30x TBV
Fair Value $51.87 12.0% upside ($51.87 - $46.32) / $46.32 = 12.0% ROTCE 13.4% → 2.02x TBV
Bull Case $62.97 36.0% upside ($62.97 - $46.32) / $46.32 = 36.0% ROTCE 15.4% → 2.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.77x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.87 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly