Amalgamated Financial Corp. logo AMAL - Amalgamated Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $44.00
CONSENSUS: $44.00
UPSIDE: 6.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.3% below fair value
Current Price $41.29
Bear Case $32.11 22.2% downside ($32.11 - $41.29) / $41.29 = -22.2% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.26x TBV
Fair Value $49.90 20.9% upside ($49.90 - $41.29) / $41.29 = 20.9% ROTCE 13.4% → 1.97x TBV
Bull Case $60.58 46.7% upside ($60.58 - $41.29) / $41.29 = 46.7% ROTCE 15.4% → 2.39x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.58x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.90 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly