Is ALSMY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Alstom S.A.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ALSMY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Alstom S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for ALSMY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ALSMY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ALSMY's most recent reported fundamentals.

ALSMY - Alstom S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 75.6% above fair value

Current Price $1.78

Bear Case $0.78 56.4% downside ($0.78 - $1.78) / $1.78 = -56.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $1.01 43.1% downside ($1.01 - $1.78) / $1.78 = -43.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $1.23 31.0% downside ($1.23 - $1.78) / $1.78 = -31.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

6.8%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%

Implied Market Multiple 26.8x

Market is pricing in (growth) 12.9% vs our 6.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.01 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1376 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions