Alstom S.A. logo ALSMY - Alstom S.A.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 114.7% above fair value
Current Price $1.91
Bear Case $0.74 61.2% downside ($0.74 - $1.91) / $1.91 = -61.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $0.89 53.4% downside ($0.89 - $1.91) / $1.91 = -53.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1.02 46.4% downside ($1.02 - $1.91) / $1.91 = -46.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 27.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.89 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1628 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions