Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. logo ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 2
BUY 11
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 3.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.9% above fair value
Current Price $52.95
Bear Case $33.92 35.9% downside ($33.92 - $52.95) / $52.95 = -35.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $45.67 13.7% downside ($45.67 - $52.95) / $52.95 = -13.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $56.96 7.6% upside ($56.96 - $52.95) / $52.95 = 7.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 24.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.9% vs our 9.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions