Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. logo ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 2
BUY 11
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 25.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.5% below fair value
Current Price $43.80
Bear Case $33.69 23.1% downside ($33.69 - $43.80) / $43.80 = -23.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $44.94 2.6% upside ($44.94 - $43.80) / $43.80 = 2.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $55.67 27.1% upside ($55.67 - $43.80) / $43.80 = 27.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 20.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.94 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions