Allient Inc. logo ALNT - Allient Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $75.00
CONSENSUS: $74.67
UPSIDE: 17.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.8% above fair value
Current Price $63.37
Bear Case $35.22 44.4% downside ($35.22 - $63.37) / $63.37 = -44.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $48.83 22.9% downside ($48.83 - $63.37) / $63.37 = -22.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $61.82 2.4% downside ($61.82 - $63.37) / $63.37 = -2.4% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.67 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.83 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $74.67 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions