Allient Inc. logo ALNT - Allient Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $79.00
CONSENSUS: $76.80
DOWNSIDE: 15.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 93.2% above fair value
Current Price $90.49
Bear Case $33.52 63.0% downside ($33.52 - $90.49) / $90.49 = -63.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $46.85 48.2% downside ($46.85 - $90.49) / $90.49 = -48.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $59.56 34.2% downside ($59.56 - $90.49) / $90.49 = -34.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 36.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.9% vs our 9.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.80 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.85 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $76.80 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions