Allegion plc logo ALLE - Allegion plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $172.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $165.00
MEDIAN: $172.50
CONSENSUS: $172.50
UPSIDE: 32.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.5% below fair value
Current Price $130.43
Bear Case $106.82 18.1% downside ($106.82 - $130.43) / $130.43 = -18.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $152.63 17.0% upside ($152.63 - $130.43) / $130.43 = 17.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $197.77 51.6% upside ($197.77 - $130.43) / $130.43 = 51.6% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $172.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $152.63 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions