Allegion plc logo ALLE - Allegion plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $156.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $170.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $156.00
CONSENSUS: $156.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.8% below fair value
Current Price $157.48
Bear Case $123.38 21.7% downside ($123.38 - $157.48) / $157.48 = -21.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $178.61 13.4% upside ($178.61 - $157.48) / $157.48 = 13.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $233.95 48.6% upside ($233.95 - $157.48) / $157.48 = 48.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 20.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.3% vs our 10.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $178.61 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $156.00
Analyst Range $142.00 – $170.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 14%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions