Allegion plc logo ALLE - Allegion plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $153.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $165.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $153.50
CONSENSUS: $153.50
UPSIDE: 12.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.6% below fair value
Current Price $136.63
Bear Case $103.50 24.2% downside ($103.50 - $136.63) / $136.63 = -24.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $147.88 8.2% upside ($147.88 - $136.63) / $136.63 = 8.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $191.62 40.2% upside ($191.62 - $136.63) / $136.63 = 40.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 20.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.4% vs our 10.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $153.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $147.88 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions