Allegion plc logo ALLE - Allegion plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $164.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $170.00
CONSENSUS: $164.00
UPSIDE: 7.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.2% below fair value
Current Price $153.17
Bear Case $123.38 19.4% downside ($123.38 - $153.17) / $153.17 = -19.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $178.61 16.6% upside ($178.61 - $153.17) / $153.17 = 16.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $233.95 52.7% upside ($233.95 - $153.17) / $153.17 = 52.7% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.0% vs our 10.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $178.61 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $164.00
Analyst Range $142.00 – $180.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions