Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. logo ALGM - Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $67.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $54.43
UPSIDE: 17.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 138.2% above fair value
Current Price $46.36
Bear Case $15.01 67.6% downside ($15.01 - $46.36) / $46.36 = -67.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $19.46 58.0% downside ($19.46 - $46.36) / $46.36 = -58.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $23.66 49.0% downside ($23.66 - $46.36) / $46.36 = -49.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 70.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 27.9% vs our 8.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.43 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.46 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $54.43 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions