Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. logo ALGM - Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $52.57
UPSIDE: 3.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 165.8% above fair value
Current Price $50.76
Bear Case $14.72 71.0% downside ($14.72 - $50.76) / $50.76 = -71.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $19.10 62.4% downside ($19.10 - $50.76) / $50.76 = -62.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $23.21 54.3% downside ($23.21 - $50.76) / $50.76 = -54.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 76.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.57 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $52.57 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions