Alamo Group Inc. logo ALG - Alamo Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $189.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $190.00
LOW: $188.00
MEDIAN: $189.00
CONSENSUS: $189.00
UPSIDE: 25.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.1% below fair value
Current Price $150.02
Bear Case $163.98 9.3% upside ($163.98 - $150.02) / $150.02 = 9.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $197.60 31.7% upside ($197.60 - $150.02) / $150.02 = 31.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $227.82 51.9% upside ($227.82 - $150.02) / $150.02 = 51.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $189.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $197.60 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions