Alamo Group Inc. logo ALG - Alamo Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $188.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $188.00
LOW: $188.00
MEDIAN: $188.00
CONSENSUS: $188.00
UPSIDE: 16.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.2% below fair value
Current Price $161.48
Bear Case $163.81 1.4% upside ($163.81 - $161.48) / $161.48 = 1.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $197.40 22.2% upside ($197.40 - $161.48) / $161.48 = 22.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $227.59 40.9% upside ($227.59 - $161.48) / $161.48 = 40.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.6% vs our 6.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $188.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $197.40 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions