Albemarle Corporation logo ALB - Albemarle Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 20
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $209.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $264.00
LOW: $153.00
MEDIAN: $208.50
CONSENSUS: $209.75
UPSIDE: 54.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.8% below fair value
Current Price $135.56
Bear Case $93.11 31.3% downside ($93.11 - $135.56) / $135.56 = -31.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $140.95 4.0% upside ($140.95 - $135.56) / $135.56 = 4.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $190.59 40.6% upside ($190.59 - $135.56) / $135.56 = 40.6% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 26.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.8% vs our 12.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $209.75 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.95 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $209.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions