ALB - Albemarle Corporation
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$209.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$264.00
LOW:
$153.00
MEDIAN:
$208.50
CONSENSUS:
$209.75
UPSIDE:
54.73%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
26.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.8%
vs our 12.4% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $209.75 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $209.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions