Acadia Realty Trust logo AKR - Acadia Realty Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
UPSIDE: 12.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.2% below fair value
Current Price $21.29
Bear Case $17.59 17.4% downside ($17.59 - $21.29) / $21.29 = -17.4% $1.28 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $21.98 3.3% upside ($21.98 - $21.29) / $21.29 = 3.3% $1.28 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $26.38 23.9% upside ($26.38 - $21.29) / $21.29 = 23.9% $1.28 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
1.28$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.28) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.98 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify