Acadia Realty Trust logo AKR - Acadia Realty Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 18.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.9% above fair value
Current Price $20.72
Bear Case $15.90 23.3% downside ($15.90 - $20.72) / $20.72 = -23.3% $1.25 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $19.57 5.6% downside ($19.57 - $20.72) / $20.72 = -5.6% $1.25 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $23.23 12.1% upside ($23.23 - $20.72) / $20.72 = 12.1% $1.25 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
1.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.25) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.25 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $19.57 per share. Dividend yield: 3.9%. DDM cross-check: $16.49.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $24.50
Analyst Range $24.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify