Acadia Realty Trust logo AKR - Acadia Realty Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $19.50
CONSENSUS: $20.50
DOWNSIDE: 7.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.1% above fair value
Current Price $22.16
Bear Case $17.03 23.1% downside ($17.03 - $22.16) / $22.16 = -23.1% $1.28 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $21.28 4.0% downside ($21.28 - $22.16) / $22.16 = -4.0% $1.28 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $25.54 15.3% upside ($25.54 - $22.16) / $22.16 = 15.3% $1.28 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
1.28$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.28) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.28 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify