Akamai Technologies, Inc. logo AKAM - Akamai Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 25
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $159.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $195.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $159.08
UPSIDE: 42.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 96.6% above fair value
Current Price $111.85
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $111.85) / $111.85 = -100.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $56.89 49.1% downside ($56.89 - $111.85) / $111.85 = -49.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $259.66 132.2% upside ($259.66 - $111.85) / $111.85 = 132.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 62.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 24.1% vs our 6.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $159.08 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.89 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 102% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $159.08 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions