AKAM - Akamai Technologies, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$158.31
DETAILS
HIGH:
$195.00
LOW:
$76.00
MEDIAN:
$165.00
CONSENSUS:
$158.31
UPSIDE:
7.53%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
76.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $158.31 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.62 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 102% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $158.31 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions