Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. logo AIT - Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $402.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $420.00
LOW: $390.00
MEDIAN: $400.00
CONSENSUS: $402.00
UPSIDE: 20.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 73.4% above fair value
Current Price $335.00
Bear Case $158.92 52.6% downside ($158.92 - $335.00) / $335.00 = -52.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $193.19 42.3% downside ($193.19 - $335.00) / $335.00 = -42.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $223.73 33.2% downside ($223.73 - $335.00) / $335.00 = -33.2% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 27.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.4% vs our 6.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $193.19 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $402.00
Analyst Range $390.00 – $420.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $402.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions