Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited logo AIPUF - Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.6% below fair value
Current Price $1.58
Bear Case $1.30 17.5% downside ($1.30 - $1.58) / $1.58 = -17.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $2.75 74.3% upside ($2.75 - $1.58) / $1.58 = 74.3% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $4.75 200.8% upside ($4.75 - $1.58) / $1.58 = 200.8% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

24.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 49%
Implied Market Multiple 36.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.9% vs our 24.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.75 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from THB into USD using USDTHB at 0.0298 USD per THB.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions