American Healthcare REIT, Inc. logo AHR - American Healthcare REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $62.00
CONSENSUS: $63.63
UPSIDE: 19.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 91.5% above fair value
Current Price $53.23
Bear Case $22.02 58.6% downside ($22.02 - $53.23) / $53.23 = -58.6% $1.36 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $27.80 47.8% downside ($27.80 - $53.23) / $53.23 = -47.8% $1.36 FFO × 23x
Bull Case $33.57 36.9% downside ($33.57 - $53.23) / $53.23 = -36.9% $1.36 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

23.4x
1.36$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.36) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 39.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.36 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $27.80 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $63.63
Analyst Range $60.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (33% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $63.63 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify