American Healthcare REIT, Inc. logo AHR - American Healthcare REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $63.00
CONSENSUS: $64.43
UPSIDE: 14.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 94.1% above fair value
Current Price $56.21
Bear Case $22.93 59.2% downside ($22.93 - $56.21) / $56.21 = -59.2% $1.43 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $28.97 48.5% downside ($28.97 - $56.21) / $56.21 = -48.5% $1.43 FFO × 23x
Bull Case $35.00 37.7% downside ($35.00 - $56.21) / $56.21 = -37.7% $1.43 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

23.4x
1.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.43) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 39.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.43 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.97 per share. Dividend yield: 1.8%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $64.43
Analyst Range $61.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 55%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.8% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.43 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify