AHR - American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$63.63
DETAILS
HIGH:
$70.00
LOW:
$60.00
MEDIAN:
$62.00
CONSENSUS:
$63.63
UPSIDE:
19.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
23.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.36) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
39.3x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.36 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $27.80 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$63.63
Analyst Range
$60.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (33% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.63 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify