AHR - American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$64.43
DETAILS
HIGH:
$70.00
LOW:
$61.00
MEDIAN:
$63.00
CONSENSUS:
$64.43
UPSIDE:
14.62%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
23.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.43) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
39.4x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.43 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.97 per share. Dividend yield: 1.8%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$64.43
Analyst Range
$61.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.8% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.43 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify