AH Realty Trust, Inc. logo AHH - AH Realty Trust, Inc.

Inactive Ticker AHH is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $7.50
MEDIAN: $8.25
CONSENSUS: $8.25
UPSIDE: 22.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.9% below fair value
Current Price $6.76
Bear Case $13.00 92.3% upside ($13.00 - $6.76) / $6.76 = 92.3% $1.21 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $15.69 132.1% upside ($15.69 - $6.76) / $6.76 = 132.1% $1.21 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $18.39 172.0% upside ($18.39 - $6.76) / $6.76 = 172.0% $1.21 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.21$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.21) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.25 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.69 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 8.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify