AHH - AH Realty Trust, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$8.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$9.00
LOW:
$7.50
MEDIAN:
$8.25
CONSENSUS:
$8.25
UPSIDE:
22.04%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.21) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.21 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.55 per share. Dividend yield: 8.3%. DDM cross-check: $10.44.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$8.25
Analyst Range
$7.50 – $9.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
113%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 8.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify