AHH - AH Realty Trust, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$8.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$9.00
LOW:
$7.50
MEDIAN:
$8.25
CONSENSUS:
$8.25
UPSIDE:
22.04%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.21) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.25 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.69 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 8.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify