Agilysys, Inc. logo AGYS - Agilysys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $107.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $107.50
UPSIDE: 0.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.6% above fair value
Current Price $106.98
Bear Case $54.48 49.1% downside ($54.48 - $106.98) / $106.98 = -49.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $102.28 4.4% downside ($102.28 - $106.98) / $106.98 = -4.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $165.09 54.3% upside ($165.09 - $106.98) / $106.98 = 54.3% 29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

22.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 56.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.8% vs our 22.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $107.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.28 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions