Agilysys, Inc. logo AGYS - Agilysys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $105.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $105.00
UPSIDE: 31.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.0% below fair value
Current Price $79.84
Bear Case $60.29 24.5% downside ($60.29 - $79.84) / $79.84 = -24.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $102.31 28.1% upside ($102.31 - $79.84) / $79.84 = 28.1% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $153.17 91.8% upside ($153.17 - $79.84) / $79.84 = 91.8% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 31.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $105.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.31 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions