Agilysys, Inc. logo AGYS - Agilysys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $107.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $107.50
DOWNSIDE: 2.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.7% above fair value
Current Price $109.75
Bear Case $49.83 54.6% downside ($49.83 - $109.75) / $109.75 = -54.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $83.96 23.5% downside ($83.96 - $109.75) / $109.75 = -23.5% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $125.24 14.1% upside ($125.24 - $109.75) / $109.75 = 14.1% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 57.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.1% vs our 18.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $107.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.96 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $107.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions