Assured Guaranty Ltd. logo AGO - Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.2% below fair value
Current Price $82.10
Bear Case $74.08 9.8% downside ($74.08 - $82.10) / $82.10 = -9.8% ROTCE 6.9% → 0.66x TBV
Fair Value $132.89 61.9% upside ($132.89 - $82.10) / $82.10 = 61.9% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.18x TBV
Bull Case $168.17 104.8% upside ($168.17 - $82.10) / $82.10 = 104.8% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.50x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.2%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.66x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.89 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $80.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly