AGO - Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$80.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$80.00
LOW:
$80.00
MEDIAN:
$80.00
CONSENSUS:
$80.00
UPSIDE:
5.23%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
8.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.62x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 9.2% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.19x on $123.55 tangible book, implying $146.84 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$80.00
Analyst Range
$80.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
84%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $80.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 84% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly