AGO - Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$88.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$91.00
LOW:
$85.00
MEDIAN:
$88.00
CONSENSUS:
$88.00
UPSIDE:
25.66%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
8.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.57x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 9.2% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.22x on $123.55 tangible book, implying $150.44 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$88.00
Analyst Range
$85.00 – $91.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 71% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly