Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation logo AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $233.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $233.00
LOW: $233.00
MEDIAN: $233.00
CONSENSUS: $233.00
UPSIDE: 31.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.8% below fair value
Current Price $177.61
Bear Case $165.34 6.9% downside ($165.34 - $177.61) / $177.61 = -6.9% ROTCE 9.0% → 0.84x TBV
Fair Value $236.20 33.0% upside ($236.20 - $177.61) / $177.61 = 33.0% ROTCE 12.1% → 1.34x TBV
Bull Case $307.06 72.9% upside ($307.06 - $177.61) / $177.61 = 72.9% ROTCE 13.9% → 1.65x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.1%
10.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.13x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $233.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $236.20 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly