AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Federal Agricultural Mortgage as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AGM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Federal Agricultural Mortgage's fair value?

Fair value for AGM comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AGM?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AGM was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from AGM's most recent reported fundamentals.

AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $233.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 6.6% below fair value

Current Price $221.43

Bear Case $165.90 25.1% downside ($165.90 - $221.43) / $221.43 = -25.1% ROTCE 9.0% → 0.87x TBV

Fair Value $237.00 7.0% upside ($237.00 - $221.43) / $221.43 = 7.0% ROTCE 12.1% → 1.39x TBV

Bull Case $308.10 39.1% upside ($308.10 - $221.43) / $221.43 = 39.1% ROTCE 13.9% → 1.70x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

12.1%

Cost of Equity

9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.1% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.39x on $158.04 tangible book, implying $237.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $233.00

Analyst Range $233.00 – $233.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly