AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies AGCO Corporation as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AGCO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is AGCO Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for AGCO comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AGCO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AGCO was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from AGCO's most recent reported fundamentals.

AGCO - AGCO Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $127.83 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 61.3% below fair value

Current Price $110.13

Bear Case $237.00 115.2% upside ($237.00 - $110.13) / $110.13 = 115.2% $11.85 × 20x

Fair Value $284.40 158.2% upside ($284.40 - $110.13) / $110.13 = 158.2% $11.85 × 24x

Bull Case $331.80 201.3% upside ($331.80 - $110.13) / $110.13 = 201.3% $11.85 × 28x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

24.0x

Normalized EPS

11.85$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($11.85)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $11.85 at a 24x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $284.40 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $127.83

Analyst Range $99.00 – $159.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 122%

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $127.83 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing