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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 12
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $129.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $160.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $128.00
CONSENSUS: $129.33
UPSIDE: 12.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.1% below fair value
Current Price $115.36
Bear Case $185.29 60.6% upside ($185.29 - $115.36) / $115.36 = 60.6% $11.85 × 20x + net cash
Fair Value $226.75 96.6% upside ($226.75 - $115.36) / $115.36 = 96.6% $11.85 × 24x + net cash
Bull Case $268.21 132.5% upside ($268.21 - $115.36) / $115.36 = 132.5% $11.85 × 28x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
11.85$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($11.85)

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $129.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $226.75 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $129.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 100% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing