Aflac Incorporated logo AFL - Aflac Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 18
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $112.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $99.00
MEDIAN: $114.00
CONSENSUS: $112.20
DOWNSIDE: 4.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 15.0% below fair value
Current Price $117.86
Bear Case $93.95 20.3% downside ($93.95 - $117.86) / $117.86 = -20.3% ROTCE 13.4% → 2.53x TBV
Fair Value $138.64 17.6% upside ($138.64 - $117.86) / $117.86 = 17.6% ROTCE 17.8% → 3.73x TBV
Bull Case $148.61 26.1% upside ($148.61 - $117.86) / $117.86 = 26.1% ROTCE 20.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
7.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.93x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $112.20 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.64 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $112.20 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly