Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo AERO - Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $31.33
UPSIDE: 95.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.7% below fair value
Current Price $16.01
Bear Case $26.20 63.6% upside ($26.20 - $16.01) / $16.01 = 63.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $33.85 111.4% upside ($33.85 - $16.01) / $16.01 = 111.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $40.47 152.8% upside ($40.47 - $16.01) / $16.01 = 152.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 31%
Implied Market Multiple 9.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.85 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions