Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo AERO - Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $20.00
UPSIDE: 22.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.8% below fair value
Current Price $16.27
Bear Case $28.80 77.1% upside ($28.80 - $16.27) / $16.27 = 77.1% $2.40 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $36.00 121.3% upside ($36.00 - $16.27) / $16.27 = 121.3% $2.40 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $43.20 165.6% upside ($43.20 - $16.27) / $16.27 = 165.6% $2.40 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.4$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.40, the base-case value is $36.00 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples