American Electric Power Company, Inc. logo AEP - American Electric Power Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.45 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $129.00
MEDIAN: $142.00
CONSENSUS: $140.45
UPSIDE: 7.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.8% above fair value
Current Price $130.48
Bear Case $102.14 21.7% downside ($102.14 - $130.48) / $130.48 = -21.7% $6.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $116.73 10.5% downside ($116.73 - $130.48) / $130.48 = -10.5% $6.66 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $131.32 0.6% upside ($131.32 - $130.48) / $130.48 = 0.6% $6.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.45 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.73 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples