American Electric Power Company, Inc. logo AEP - American Electric Power Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $147.00
LOW: $129.00
MEDIAN: $142.00
CONSENSUS: $140.38
UPSIDE: 12.76%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.8% above fair value
Current Price $124.50
Bear Case $93.24 25.1% downside ($93.24 - $124.50) / $124.50 = -25.1% $6.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $106.56 14.4% downside ($106.56 - $124.50) / $124.50 = -14.4% $6.66 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $119.88 3.7% downside ($119.88 - $124.50) / $124.50 = -3.7% $6.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.66, the base-case value is $106.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $99.37.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $140.38
Analyst Range $129.00 – $147.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples