American Electric Power Company, Inc. logo AEP - American Electric Power Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $139.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $129.00
MEDIAN: $141.00
CONSENSUS: $139.80
UPSIDE: 4.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 14.8% above fair value
Current Price $133.75
Bear Case $101.97 23.8% downside ($101.97 - $133.75) / $133.75 = -23.8% $6.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $116.53 12.9% downside ($116.53 - $133.75) / $133.75 = -12.9% $6.66 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $131.10 2.0% downside ($131.10 - $133.75) / $133.75 = -2.0% $6.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $139.80 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.53 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples