Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. logo AEIS - Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $424.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $535.00
LOW: $325.00
MEDIAN: $415.00
CONSENSUS: $424.29
UPSIDE: 37.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 88.3% above fair value
Current Price $308.05
Bear Case $104.18 66.2% downside ($104.18 - $308.05) / $308.05 = -66.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $163.59 46.9% downside ($163.59 - $308.05) / $308.05 = -46.9% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $231.10 25.0% downside ($231.10 - $308.05) / $308.05 = -25.0% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 137.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 34.9% vs our 15.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $424.29 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.59 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $424.29 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions