Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. logo AEIS - Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $362.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $430.00
LOW: $225.00
MEDIAN: $390.00
CONSENSUS: $362.50
UPSIDE: 7.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 140.3% above fair value
Current Price $337.83
Bear Case $90.95 73.1% downside ($90.95 - $337.83) / $337.83 = -73.1% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $140.60 58.4% downside ($140.60 - $337.83) / $337.83 = -58.4% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $196.66 41.8% downside ($196.66 - $337.83) / $337.83 = -41.8% 21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 151.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $362.50 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.60 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $362.50 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions