AEIS - Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$424.29
DETAILS
HIGH:
$535.00
LOW:
$325.00
MEDIAN:
$415.00
CONSENSUS:
$424.29
UPSIDE:
37.73%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
85% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
137.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.9%
vs our 15.8% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $424.29 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $424.29 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions