Aehr Test Systems logo AEHR - Aehr Test Systems

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $68.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $62.00
CONSENSUS: $62.00
DOWNSIDE: 34.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 1034.2% above fair value
Current Price $95.02
Bear Case $6.40 93.3% downside ($6.40 - $95.02) / $95.02 = -93.3% $0.50 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $8.38 91.2% downside ($8.38 - $95.02) / $95.02 = -91.2% $0.50 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $10.36 89.1% downside ($10.36 - $95.02) / $95.02 = -89.1% $0.50 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.5$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.50)

Implied Market Multiple 192.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.50 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.38 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 29.5x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 29.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing