Ameren Corporation logo AEE - Ameren Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $116.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $126.00
LOW: $104.00
MEDIAN: $118.00
CONSENSUS: $116.33
UPSIDE: 13.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.3% above fair value
Current Price $102.19
Bear Case $77.58 24.1% downside ($77.58 - $102.19) / $102.19 = -24.1% $5.35 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $88.66 13.2% downside ($88.66 - $102.19) / $102.19 = -13.2% $5.35 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $99.74 2.4% downside ($99.74 - $102.19) / $102.19 = -2.4% $5.35 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.6x
5.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.35, the base-case value is $88.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $103.36.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $116.33
Analyst Range $104.00 – $126.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples