AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Aebi Schmidt Holding AG as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AEBI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's fair value?

Fair value for AEBI comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AEBI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AEBI was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from AEBI's most recent reported fundamentals.

AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 117.4% above fair value

Current Price $12.35

Bear Case $4.73 61.7% downside ($4.73 - $12.35) / $12.35 = -61.7% $0.24 × 20x

Fair Value $5.68 54.0% downside ($5.68 - $12.35) / $12.35 = -54.0% $0.24 × 24x

Bull Case $6.63 46.3% downside ($6.63 - $12.35) / $12.35 = -46.3% $0.24 × 28x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

24.0x

Normalized EPS

0.24$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.24)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 52.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 3-year normalized EPS of $0.24 at a 24x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $5.68 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 12.4x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 12.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing