Aebi Schmidt Holding AG logo AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.50
LOW: $16.50
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $16.50
UPSIDE: 36.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.5% above fair value
Current Price $12.10
Bear Case $7.25 40.1% downside ($7.25 - $12.10) / $12.10 = -40.1% $0.54 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $9.06 25.1% downside ($9.06 - $12.10) / $12.10 = -25.1% $0.54 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $10.88 10.1% downside ($10.88 - $12.10) / $12.10 = -10.1% $0.54 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.6x
0.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.54, the base-case value is $9.06 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 220%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples