Addus HomeCare Corporation logo ADUS - Addus HomeCare Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $115.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $134.00
LOW: $96.00
MEDIAN: $115.00
CONSENSUS: $115.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.0% above fair value
Current Price $118.01
Bear Case $81.60 30.9% downside ($81.60 - $118.01) / $118.01 = -30.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $115.67 2.0% downside ($115.67 - $118.01) / $118.01 = -2.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $149.96 27.1% upside ($149.96 - $118.01) / $118.01 = 27.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 23.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.2% vs our 11.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $115.67 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $115.00
Analyst Range $96.00 – $134.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 1%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions