Addus HomeCare Corporation logo ADUS - Addus HomeCare Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $117.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $139.00
LOW: $96.00
MEDIAN: $117.50
CONSENSUS: $117.50
UPSIDE: 7.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.0% above fair value
Current Price $108.86
Bear Case $75.49 30.7% downside ($75.49 - $108.86) / $108.86 = -30.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $104.68 3.8% downside ($104.68 - $108.86) / $108.86 = -3.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $133.47 22.6% upside ($133.47 - $108.86) / $108.86 = 22.6% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 23.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.2% vs our 10.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.68 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions