Addus HomeCare Corporation logo ADUS - Addus HomeCare Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $122.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $139.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $135.00
CONSENSUS: $122.00
UPSIDE: 30.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.9% below fair value
Current Price $93.18
Bear Case $76.30 18.1% downside ($76.30 - $93.18) / $93.18 = -18.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.80 13.5% upside ($105.80 - $93.18) / $93.18 = 13.5% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $134.91 44.8% upside ($134.91 - $93.18) / $93.18 = 44.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 20.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.80 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions