AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ADM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's fair value?

Fair value for ADM is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ADM?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ADM's most recent reported fundamentals.

ADM - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $75.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 46.7% above fair value

Current Price $82.30

Bear Case $44.88 45.5% downside ($44.88 - $82.30) / $82.30 = -45.5% $4.79 × 8x P/E

Fair Value $56.10 31.8% downside ($56.10 - $82.30) / $82.30 = -31.8% $4.79 × 10x P/E

Bull Case $67.33 18.2% downside ($67.33 - $82.30) / $82.30 = -18.2% $4.79 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

10.0x

Adjusted EPS

4.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.25 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.10 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 115%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 92% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $108.69 (above our primary estimate by 127%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $75.25 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples