AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Archer-Daniels-Midland Company as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ADM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's fair value?

Fair value for ADM comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ADM?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ADM was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from ADM's most recent reported fundamentals.

ADM - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $84.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 65.7% above fair value

Current Price $79.36

Bear Case $38.32 51.7% downside ($38.32 - $79.36) / $79.36 = -51.7% $4.79 × 8x P/E

Fair Value $47.90 39.6% downside ($47.90 - $79.36) / $79.36 = -39.6% $4.79 × 10x P/E

Bull Case $57.48 27.6% downside ($57.48 - $79.36) / $79.36 = -27.6% $4.79 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

10.0x

Adjusted EPS

4.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.79, the base-case value is $47.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $94.51.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $84.75

Analyst Range $75.00 – $95.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 43%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 115%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $94.51 (above our primary estimate by 97%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $84.75 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples