Adeia Inc. logo ADEA - Adeia Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $39.33
UPSIDE: 52.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.8% above fair value
Current Price $25.72
Bear Case $17.82 30.7% downside ($17.82 - $25.72) / $25.72 = -30.7% $0.99 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $21.29 17.2% downside ($21.29 - $25.72) / $25.72 = -17.2% $0.99 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $24.75 3.8% downside ($24.75 - $25.72) / $25.72 = -3.8% $0.99 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.99, the base-case value is $21.29 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $39.33
Analyst Range $35.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 46%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $39.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples