Adeia Inc. logo ADEA - Adeia Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $39.33
UPSIDE: 40.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.4% below fair value
Current Price $27.94
Bear Case $23.96 14.2% downside ($23.96 - $27.94) / $27.94 = -14.2% $1.21 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $28.63 2.5% upside ($28.63 - $27.94) / $27.94 = 2.5% $1.21 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $33.28 19.1% upside ($33.28 - $27.94) / $27.94 = 19.1% $1.21 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
1.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.33 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.63 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $39.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples