Adeia Inc. logo ADEA - Adeia Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $34.50
UPSIDE: 28.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.9% below fair value
Current Price $26.86
Bear Case $23.15 13.8% downside ($23.15 - $26.86) / $26.86 = -13.8% $1.21 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $27.66 3.0% upside ($27.66 - $26.86) / $26.86 = 3.0% $1.21 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $32.16 19.7% upside ($32.16 - $26.86) / $26.86 = 19.7% $1.21 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
1.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.66 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples