AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Agree Realty Corporation as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ADC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Agree Realty Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for ADC comes from a P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ADC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ADC was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, built from ADC's most recent reported fundamentals.

ADC - Agree Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $84.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 23.6% above fair value

Current Price $73.20

Bear Case $47.59 35.0% downside ($47.59 - $73.20) / $73.20 = -35.0% $4.00 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $59.20 19.1% downside ($59.20 - $73.20) / $73.20 = -19.1% $4.00 FFO × 20x

Bull Case $70.81 3.3% downside ($70.81 - $73.20) / $73.20 = -3.3% $4.00 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.5x

FFO per Share

4.0$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.00) × retail P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.00 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $59.20 per share. Dividend yield: 1.5%. DDM cross-check: $15.46.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $84.00

Analyst Range $80.00 – $91.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ The 1.5% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $15.46 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $84.00 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify