Acacia Research Corporation logo ACTG - Acacia Research Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 2
STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.8% below fair value
Current Price $4.54
Bear Case $16.40 261.2% upside ($16.40 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 261.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.02 517.2% upside ($28.02 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 517.2% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $42.61 838.6% upside ($42.61 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 838.6% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 3.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) -14.9% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.02 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions