Acacia Research Corporation logo ACTG - Acacia Research Corporation

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.4% below fair value
Current Price $4.66
Bear Case $16.44 252.9% upside ($16.44 - $4.66) / $4.66 = 252.9% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.06 502.2% upside ($28.06 - $4.66) / $4.66 = 502.2% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $42.66 815.4% upside ($42.66 - $4.66) / $4.66 = 815.4% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 4.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.06 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions