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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $61.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $57.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $61.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.3% above fair value
Current Price $61.37
Bear Case $38.95 36.5% downside ($38.95 - $61.37) / $61.37 = -36.5% ROTCE 8.3% → 0.86x TBV
Fair Value $55.65 9.3% downside ($55.65 - $61.37) / $61.37 = -9.3% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.41x TBV
Bull Case $72.34 17.9% upside ($72.34 - $61.37) / $61.37 = 17.9% ROTCE 12.8% → 1.74x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.88x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.41x on $32.62 tangible book, implying $55.65 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly