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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $58.00
CONSENSUS: $58.00
UPSIDE: 6.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.2% below fair value
Current Price $54.45
Bear Case $38.95 28.5% downside ($38.95 - $54.45) / $54.45 = -28.5% ROTCE 8.3% → 0.85x TBV
Fair Value $55.65 2.2% upside ($55.65 - $54.45) / $54.45 = 2.2% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.40x TBV
Bull Case $72.34 32.9% upside ($72.34 - $54.45) / $54.45 = 32.9% ROTCE 12.8% → 1.73x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.67x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.40x on $32.62 tangible book, implying $55.65 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly