AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Aecom's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ACM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Aecom's fair value?

Fair value for ACM is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ACM?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ACM's most recent reported fundamentals.

ACM - Aecom

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $109.57 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 31.5% above fair value

Current Price $68.25

Bear Case $38.07 44.2% downside ($38.07 - $68.25) / $68.25 = -44.2% $2.18 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $51.92 23.9% downside ($51.92 - $68.25) / $68.25 = -23.9% $2.18 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $65.76 3.6% downside ($65.76 - $68.25) / $68.25 = -3.6% $2.18 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

2.18$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.18)

Implied Market Multiple 31.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.57 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.92 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Recent profits ($4.21/share) are 93% above the mid-cycle average ($2.18). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $109.57 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing