Axcelis Technologies, Inc. logo ACLS - Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $128.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $174.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $128.00
DOWNSIDE: 18.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 49.9% above fair value
Current Price $156.94
Bear Case $73.43 53.2% downside ($73.43 - $156.94) / $156.94 = -53.2% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $104.68 33.3% downside ($104.68 - $156.94) / $156.94 = -33.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $138.47 11.8% downside ($138.47 - $156.94) / $156.94 = -11.8% 18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 42.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.68 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions