AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ACHC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ACHC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ACHC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ACHC's most recent reported fundamentals.

ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $25.59 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 32.6% below fair value

Current Price $23.18

Bear Case $27.53 18.8% upside ($27.53 - $23.18) / $23.18 = 18.8% $2.30 × 13x P/E

Fair Value $34.41 48.4% upside ($34.41 - $23.18) / $23.18 = 48.4% $2.30 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $41.29 78.1% upside ($41.29 - $23.18) / $23.18 = 78.1% $2.30 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.2x

Adjusted EPS

2.3$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.59 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.41 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $25.59 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples