ACCO - ACCO Brands Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$8.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$8.00
LOW:
$8.00
MEDIAN:
$8.00
CONSENSUS:
$8.00
UPSIDE:
109.42%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
3.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 144%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $4.33 (below our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples