ACCO Brands Corporation logo ACCO - ACCO Brands Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $8.00
CONSENSUS: $8.00
UPSIDE: 109.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 73.7% below fair value
Current Price $3.82
Bear Case $11.60 203.7% upside ($11.60 - $3.82) / $3.82 = 203.7% $1.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $14.50 279.7% upside ($14.50 - $3.82) / $3.82 = 279.7% $1.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $17.41 355.7% upside ($17.41 - $3.82) / $3.82 = 355.7% $1.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.50 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 144%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $4.33 (below our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples