ACCO Brands Corporation logo ACCO - ACCO Brands Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.00
UPSIDE: 32.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.4% below fair value
Current Price $4.53
Bear Case $5.28 16.6% upside ($5.28 - $4.53) / $4.53 = 16.6% $0.44 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $6.60 45.7% upside ($6.60 - $4.53) / $4.53 = 45.7% $0.44 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $7.92 74.8% upside ($7.92 - $4.53) / $4.53 = 74.8% $0.44 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.44$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.44, the base-case value is $6.60 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $6.00
Analyst Range $6.00 – $6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples