AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. as a High-Growth Software business and values it using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ACAD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ACAD comes from a Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's High-Growth Software classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ACAD?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ACAD was classified as High-Growth Software and is valued using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, built from ACAD's most recent reported fundamentals.

ACAD - ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $33.35 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 35.1% below fair value

Current Price $29.11

Bear Case $24.67 15.2% downside ($24.67 - $29.11) / $29.11 = -15.2% 12% rev growth, 21% terminal margin

Fair Value $44.83 54.0% upside ($44.83 - $29.11) / $29.11 = 54.0% 19% rev growth, 28% terminal margin

Bull Case $67.42 131.6% upside ($67.42 - $29.11) / $29.11 = 131.6% 25% rev growth, 32% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

Revenue Growth Rate

19.0%

Terminal FCF Margin

28.0%

Discount Rate

12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (19%) × margin expansion to 28%

Terminal Value % of EV 62%

Implied Market Multiple 3.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Projecting 19% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 10% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $44.83 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (37 analysts) $33.35

Analyst Range $14.50 – $49.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 34%

Warnings

⚠ Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 10% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.

ℹ Gross margin of 92% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $33.35 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep